Page 18 - College Planning & Management, February 2018

2018 FACILITIES & CONSTRUCTION BRIEF
An Overview of the Education Construction Scene
While there is much we can’t predict, there are a few things we know for sure. We know that the population of the U.S. is growing and along with it the enrollment in our K-12 schools. We know that there is a growing need for an educated workforce, affecting the enrollment of colleges and universities nationwide. We know that there is an ongoing deferred maintenance problem and a need to invest in the improvement of existing facilities. We also know that the construction and renovation of educational facilities is finally on the rise.
The following information is provided to give you a brief
overview of what we know based on available data and a survey of our readers. In past reports, we’ve provided national medians on specific facility types, but this year accurate data was scarce, the sample size too small and the project scope too varied. What you find here are the trends in population and enrollment, the trends in overall education construction spending, and the results of our reader survey—giving you an overview of the trends in facilities and construction.
The SP&M/CP&M Editorial Team
CHANGES IN POPULATION AFFECT ENROLLMENT
POPULATION CHANGE
• One birth every 8 seconds
• One death every 10 seconds
• One international migrant (net) every 29 seconds • Net gain of one person every 18 seconds
States in the South and West continued to lead in population growth. Nationally, the U.S. population grew by 0.72 percent. Eight states lost population between July 1, 2016, and July 1, 2017. Illinois had the largest numeric decline, losing 33,703 people (this was a relatively small percentage change compared to its population of 12.8 million). Wyoming had the largest percentage decline (1.0 percent). Three states that had
been losing population in the previous year, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Vermont, saw slight increases.
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY
Total public and private elementary and secondary school enroll- ment was 55 million in fall 2013, the last year of actual public school data. Between fall 2013, and fall 2025, an increase of 2 percent is expected. Public school enrollments are projected to be higher in 2025 than in 2013 for the South and West, and to lower for the Northeast and Midwest.
• Enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8 is projected to increase 2 percent between 2013 and 2025.
• Enrollment in grades 9-12 is projected to increase 3 percent between 2013 and 2025.
• Public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase 2 percent nationally, reflecting a 5-percent decrease in the Northeast, a 3-percent decrease in the Midwest, an 8-per- cent increase in the South and a 4-percent increase in the West.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
DEGREE-GRANTING POSTSECONDARY
Total enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions is expected to increase 15 percent between fall 2014, the last year of actual data, and fall 2025.
• Enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions of
students who are 18 to 24 years old is projected to increase
13 percent between 2014 and 2025.
• Enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions of
students who are 25 to 34 years old is projected to increase
16 percent between 2014 and 2025.
• Enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions of
students who are 35 years old and over is projected to increase 20 percent between 2014 and 2025.
GROWTH BY NUMBER (2016 to 2017)
State
2017 Population
Growth
Texas
28,304,596
399,734
Florida
20,984,400
327.811
California
39,536,653
240,177
Washington
7,405,743
124,809
North Carolina
10,273,419
116,730
Georgia
10,429,379
115,759
Arizona
7,016,270
107,628
Colorado
5,607,154
77,049
Tennessee
6,715,984
66,580
South Carolina
5,024,369
64,547
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS (In Thousands)
Year
All
pK-12
pK-12: Public
pK-12: Private
Degree-Granting Postsecondary
Total
pK-8
9-12
Total
pK-8
9-12
Total
Public
Private
2005
72,647
55,187
49,113
34,204
14,909
**6,073
**4,724
**1,349
17,487
13,022
4,466
2010
75,886
54,867
49,484
34,625
14,860
5,382
4,084
1,299
21,019
15,142
5,877
*2015
75,810
55,546
50,268
35,298
14,970
5,278
3,968
1,311
20,264
14,789
5,475
*2020
77,875
55,862
50,774
35,559
15,215
5,088
3,871
1,217
22,013
16,038
5,975
*2025
79,800
56,510
51,420
36,052
15,368
5,090
3,943
1,147
23,290
16,967
6,323
18
*Projected; ** Estimated
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2025.
Note: Projections do not assume changes in policies or attitudes that may affect enrollment levels. COLLEGE PLANNING & MANAGEMENT / FEBRUARY 2018
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