Page 40 - GCN, March and April 2017

PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS
Indiana’s color-coded Daily Crash Prediction Map gathers data on accidents, traffic volume, weather and other factors to highlight where crashes are likely.
“It’s not the silver bullet that is going to solve every problem on traffic safety,” he said. “But it’s another tool, an effec- tive one, to give our people an idea of where they need to be and what they need to be working on to help prevent some of these crashes or at least be there quicker.”
MORE STATES ON BOARD
So far, only a small number of highway patrols are using predictive crash analyt- ics. Macek said the major reason is cost.
“State law enforcement is strapped for cash right now,” she said. “It requires a great deal of money and people and strategic thinking.”
But Macek anticipates that more states will come on board. “There’s an appetite for it,” she said. “The Tennessee program has gotten a lot of interest from other states.”
One of them is Missouri, which de- cided to set up its own version after officials met with their counterparts in Tennessee and toured their data center operation.
The Missouri State Highway Patrol is gathering data and running tests on computer models and plans for troopers to use the new tool in the field by Janu-
ary 2018, said Mark Ritchey, director of the agency’s Statistical Analysis Center.
Ritchey said his agency received a $148,000 federal grant to start its pro- gram, buy software from a vendor and run the system for three years. He hopes it will reduce fatal crashes in his state, which jumped from 683 in 2013 to 850 in 2016, according to the latest tally.
The Wisconsin State Patrol is also developing a predictive crash analytics program it hopes to launch by year’s end, Col. Charles Teasdale said.
The program will pull together the time, day and location of every crash in Wisconsin, as well as the factors that contributed to the crash. The agency will use the information to deploy troop- ers to areas that have had accidents with fatalities or serious injuries.
Teasdale said his agency won’t need to buy the software from a private com- pany, as Tennessee and Missouri did, because it can develop it in-house with help from the University of Wisconsin.
MAPPING DAILY
CRASH PREDICTIONS
Indiana State Police decided to take a different approach and is making its predictive crash analytics program avail- able to the public as well as troopers.
A color-coded Daily Crash Prediction Map, which went online in November
2016, pulls together data that includes crash reports from every police agency in the state dating to 2004, along with daily traffic volume, historical weather information and the dates of major holi- days, First Sgt. Rob Simpson said.
The map pinpoints where a crash is likely, ranging from a very low to a high probability. It also highlights prior crash sites and displays information about the date and cause, whether emergency ser- vices were called, if there was a fatality and whether alcohol or drugs were in- volved. As of late January, the site had had nearly 4,800 page visits.
“We’re using this to better inform the public about potential hazards,” Simp- son said. “Maybe someone will click on it and decide they want to take a differ- ent route to work or allow more time.”
He said it’s too early to determine the program’s effectiveness, but his agency plans to do a complete analysis and check the algorithm to make sure it’s accurate.
Highway patrol officials admit it can be tough to get some veteran troopers to use the predictive technology because they don’t think they need an algorithm to tell them where the crash hot spots are.
Trott said troopers do know a great deal, but in his state they often move from county to county and might not have historical knowledge about crashes in all those areas.
“The biggest challenge is not the mon- ey, it’s not execution,” Trott said. “You’ve got to sell it to your department that it’s going to be a benefit and it can help them be successful.”
That’s what the Wisconsin State Patrol is hoping for when it launches its predic- tive crash model, Teasdale said.
“Every trooper wants to know they’re making a difference,” he said. “If they can see results, it gives them a sense of ac- complishment and a sense of purpose.” •
This article originally appeared in State- line, an initiative of the Pew Charitable Trusts.
40 GCN MARCH/APRIL 2017 • GCN.COM
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