Page 27 - FCW, Jan/Feb 2018

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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Acting Census Director Ron Jarmin Acting Deputy Director Enrique Lamas
In addition to the functionality of the IT systems, Lowenthal said she’ll be keep- ing an eye on the public’s response rates.
Other political matters could com- plicate those response rates and the bureau’s ability to meet another major deadline: By March 31, it must deliver the nal questions that will appear on the decennial forms.
In January, Census o cials con rmed that the 2018 test and the 2020 count will ask two questions about race and ethnicity rather than the one combined question the bureau had planned to
use (see “Census changes course on key 2020 question”). That decision could have implications for the pub- lic’s response rate, and it requires yet another adjustment as the bureau races to prepare for testing this year.
Thompson said he is even more concerned about reports that Trump administration o cials are considering adding a question about immigration status. The Washington Post reported that the idea was oated in a draft executive order.
Commerce Department attorneys and Census Bureau technical experts are “conducting an orderly review of the Department of Justice request,” Fon- tenot said during the January program management review.
Thompson cautioned that “if they push to put a question on immigration status, that’s going to be just terrible. The only reason you put that on is because you want to suppress response from certain people.”
“You could just declare the census failed if they do that,” Sparks added. n
Census changes course on key 2020 question
The Census Bureau has opted to forgo a small but significant change to survey questions that could have consequences for the accuracy of the 2020 census’ count of racial and ethnic minorities.
Through its own research, the bureau found that minority populations are more likely to respond to a single combined question, so officials had recommended folding two questions on race and ethnicity into one.
The bureau had asked two questions on race and ethnicity in the 2000 and 2010 population counts, and internal research found that the 2010 enumeration under- counted the Hispanic population by about 1.5 percent.
In addition to the bureau’s findings that the combined question resulted in more accurate data, the Pew Research Center found statistical evidence supporting the combined question.
“People were less likely to give no answer or an invalid answer when responding tothecombinedquestionthantotheseparatequestions”, thecenter’sreportstates. As a result of that research, former Census Director JohnThompson said the plan for the 2018 test, which is a dress rehearsal for the 2020 main event, was to combine the two questions into one with a drop-down menu that would allow respondents
to note their country of origin.
“IknowthatbecauseIsubmittedit”, hesaid.
However, the Office of Management and Budget has final say over the decision,
and sources told FCW that OMB did not support the combined question, which left the bureau with no option but to stick with the two-question design.
“In order to ensure that the systems fielded in the 2018 end-to-end census test are consistent with the design for the 2020 census, the 2018 end-to-end census test datacollectionoperationswillusetheseparatequestionsformat”, Censusofficials wrote in a document obtained by FCW.
OMB did not respond to FCW’s request for comment. During the January pro- gram management review, Al Fontenot, the bureau’s associate director for decennial census programs, confirmed the plan to go with two questions.
That decision “means they didn’t listen to all the stakeholders”, Thompson said.
“I think this is a blow to science”, said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Education Fund. “OMB is ignoring the recommendation of expert demographers within the Census Bureau who had spent years of research to determine how to collect better race and ethnicity data from the American public”.
Vargas added that when it came to which approach would lead to better data, “it took [the association] years to arrive at that conclusion because we wanted to be convinced by the research that a combined question was better”.
“I’mnotsayingitmeanslesspeoplewillbecollected”, headded.“I’mjustsay- ing we’ll get the same kind of imprecise data the bureau’s been collecting because of the flawed two-question approach.....This is now changing all the bureau’s plans regarding the questionnaire and data collection for the 2018 test and beyond”.
— Chase Gunter January/February 2018 FCW.COM 25