Page 37 - FCW, June 2017

ThinkPiece CYBERSECURITY’S NEXT PHASE:
Cyber deterrence
We can fight threats by improving cybersecurity, employing active defenses and establishing international norms for cyberspace
BY DOROTHY DENNING
Cyberattackers pose many threats to a wide range of tar- gets. Russia, for example, was accused of hacking Demo- cratic Party computers and interfering with the U.S. presi- dential election. Then there was the unknown attacker who, on a single October day, used thousands of internet- connected devices, such as digital video recorders and cameras compromised by Mirai malware, to take down several high-profile websites, including Twitter.
From 2005 to 2015, federal agencies reported a 1,300 percent jump in cybersecurity incidents. Clearly, we need better ways of addressing this broad category of threats. Some of us in the cybersecurity field are asking wheth- er cyber deterrence might help.
Deterrence focuses on making potential adversaries think twice about attacking by forcing them to consider the costs of doing so as well as the consequences that might come from a counterattack. There are two main principles of deterrence. The first — denial — involves convincing would-be attackers that they won’t succeed, at least not without enormous effort and cost beyond what they are willing to invest.
The second is punishment, or making sure the adversar- ies know there will be a strong response that might inflict more harm than they are willing to bear.
For decades, deterrence has effectively countered the threat of nuclear weapons. Can we achieve similar results against cyber weapons?
Why cyber deterrence is hard
Nuclear deterrence works because few countries have nuclear weapons or the significant resources needed to invest in them. Those that do have them recognize that launching a first strike risks a devastating nuclear response. Further, the international community has estab- lished institutions, such as the International Atomic Energy
Agency, and agreements, such as the Treaty on the Non- Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, to counter the cata- strophic threat nuclear weapons pose.
Cyber weapons are nothing like nuclear ones. They are readily developed and deployed by individuals and small
For decades, deterrence has effectively countered the threat of nuclear weapons. Can we achieve similar results against cyber weapons?
June 2017 FCW.COM 31