Page 30 - FCW, June 2017

CANTHE CENSUS BUREAU REALLY DELIVER
$5 BILLION IN SAVINGS?
Cost overruns and decisions to cancel or suspend various programs are putting the price tag for the 2020 count at risk
BY CHASE GUNTER
After the expensive 2010 census, with its IT boondoggles and acquisition chaos, the govern- ment promised to do better in 2020. The Census Bureau even trimmed $5 billion from the projected cost of conducting the upcoming population count.
Now much of that savings is at risk, according to the bureau’s director and the Government Accountability Office.
Census Director John Thompson told Congress in May that unexpected cost overruns on critical systems and decisions to cancel or suspend various programs could eat into the hoped-for savings.
GAO auditors have long harbored doubts about the bureau’s projections. In June 2016, GAO reported that the
bureau’s October 2015 estimate that it could conduct the 2020 count for $12.5 billion could not be considered reliable because it did not adhere to best prac- tices or fully account for the risks asso- ciated with new technologies.
At a May hearing of the House Appro- priations Committee’s Commerce, Jus- tice, Science and Related Agencies Sub- committee, Thompson said the bureau’s best estimate for the 2020 count’s total life cycle is still $12.5 billion — $5 bil- lion less than the expected cost of using the 2010 count’s paper-based methodol- ogy. He acknowledged, however, that the projected savings might go down when Census releases an official life cycle cost estimate this summer.
Dave Powner, GAO’s director of IT
management issues, told lawmakers that conducting the 2020 headcount with the degree of technology Census officials have proposed is “doable, but the issue is: at what cost?”
Powner said GAO has major con- cerns in three areas: cost growth, schedule and security. “The bureau’s track record for delivering IT for pre- vious decennial \[counts\] is not good,” he added. “Unfortunately, we see similar issues for 2020 — late starts, schedule pressure and not enough transparency.”
A $1B IT overrun?
Powner also said he believes the total IT costs will be far higher than anticipated — as much as $1 billion more than the estimated $2.4 billion.
The long road to 2020
OCTOBER 2015:
Operational Plan Version 1.0 released; last life cycle cost estimate
OCTOBER 2016:
Census calls off 2017 field tests, citing funding uncertainty; Operational Plan Version 2.0 released
MARCH 2017:
Topics for 2020 census submitted to Congress
APRIL 2017:
Census tests its mailing and internet self- response systems and new Census Questionnaire Assistance
FEBRUARY 2017:
GAO labels the 2020 headcount high-risk
24 June 2017 FCW.COM